Sports betting has exploded across America since the Supreme Court struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act in 2018, opening sportsbooks wherever legislation allows. However, with new betting opportunities comes new risks and pitfalls that can spell disaster for your bankroll.
Over-relying on Advanced Metrics
Some bettors use advanced metrics like Expected Goals (xG) in soccer and Player Efficiency Rating (PER) in basketball to make decisions about their bets. While these tools can provide valuable insights, they should never be used to make money sports betting on their own. A single metric can’t cover all the angles and intricacies of a sport, so it’s vital to complement these with other types of analysis.
Taking Advantage of Line Shopping
Sportsbooks move lines for a number of reasons. They may try to balance action by moving a line that has attracted too much action on one side. They might also be reacting to news about injuries or lineup changes. Whatever the reason, bettors can often take advantage of line moves to maximize profits.
Correlated Parlays
Putting bets on two closely related outcomes is a great way to boost your winnings. For instance, if you believe that a defensive team is going to dominate a game, consider placing a bet on them to win and a bet on the ‘Under’ for total points scored. If both of these bets hit, you will be a big winner!
Avoiding Stupid Bets
There are many bad bets that can be made in sports betting. Some of the most common are over-betting on a team that’s expected to win and under-betting on a team that’s projected to lose. Both of these mistakes can lead to a negative variance, which means that you’re losing more than you’re winning.
Overestimating Your Betting Skills
Most people think they’re better at sports betting than they really are. This is because they overestimate their ability to pick winners and ignore the underlying dynamics of a sporting event. They’re also prone to over-relying on advanced metrics that can mask the nuances of a game.
The first step in making smarter bets is to set aside a dedicated bankroll and decide on a unit size based on your bankroll. This will help you minimize risk and ensure that your wagers are sustainable over time. Also, be sure to open a separate account that’s exclusively for sports betting. Then, make bets in increments of one to two percent of your bankroll. This way, you can continue to wager even if your bankroll takes a hit. This is known as hedging, and it’s a great way to protect your profit and minimize losses. It’s not foolproof, but it can dramatically improve your chances of success over the long run.